Ball possession and match results of national football leagues in Europe: a study of the 2023-2024 season

Faruk Albay; Izzet Islamoglu; Yıldırım Kayacan

Faruk Albay Faculty of Yaşar Doğu Sport Sciences, University of Ondokuz Mayıs, Körfez Mh, Atakum, Samsun, Türkiye.
Izzet Islamoglu Ondokuz Mayıs University, Türkiye.
Yıldırım Kayacan Faculty of Yaşar Doğu Sport Sciences, University of Ondokuz Mayıs, Körfez Mh, Atakum, Samsun, Türkiye.

Keywords: Football, Ball possession, Leagues, Analyses

Abstract

Objective: The relationship between a football team's possession percentage and its victory has been the subject of numerous studies, with varying findings. The aim of this research is to examine the relationship between ball possession and match outcome in major European football leagues during the 2023-2024 season. Materials and Method: Ball possession percentages, as well as the number of wins, losses, and draws in the English, Spanish, German, and Turkish football leagues, were obtained and compared using the Wyscout statistics database. One-way analysis of variance was applied to normally distributed data, and Tukey post-hoc tests were used for league comparisons. A significance level of p<0.05 was considered statistically significant for all tests. Results: The research findings showed that teams that won matches had significantly higher ball possession percentages (p=0.001). In league comparisons, except for Turkey, leagues with higher possession percentages also showed significantly higher match win rates (p=0.001). The lowest ball possession percentage among winning teams was observed in the Turkish Süper Lig (p=0.006). In contrast, the highest ball possession percentage among losing teams was found in the Turkish league (p=0.005). Conclusion: It is known that variations in the correlation between match wins and ball possession percentages across studies depend on seasons, countries, and the football characteristics of the leagues. However, the findings of the present research indicate that, in line with current data, ball possession is a significant predictor of match victory in the leading leagues around the world.

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